2026年9月3日（木曜）午前11時00分～午後12時15分

ジェトロ・アジア経済研究所　C23会議室

Parents make fertility decisions sequentially, updating their plans as they learn about each child. Quantity-quality trade-offs suggest that fertility choices may respond to the observed health of each birth, yet researchers frequently assume away endogenous fertility. This paper models parents' fertility decisions by combining Becker's quantity-quality framework with Behrman's sibling-allocation framework and related models. We then estimate the relationship between children's initial endowment (measured as birth weight) and subsequent fertility choices and preferences in West Africa. We find that parents reduce fertility following the birth of larger (healthier) babies. This is corroborated using exogenous variation in birth weight from idiosyncratic exposure to Harmattan dust in utero.

Claus Portner 教授（シアトル大学）

牧野 百恵