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Shafiqullah Yousafzai 氏(筑波大学): Are the Benefits of Increasing Exports Equal? Evidence from Night Lights Data and Exogenous Export Variations

開催日時

2025年2月13日(木曜)12時00分~午後1時15分

会場
要旨

This study examines the effect of exports on income at the subnational level and urban-rural income inequality. A country-year panel of 105 countries with five years of average data from 1997 to 2020 was constructed. In each country, a trade hub area is defined as the areas within a 25-kilometer radius from three port cities and three inland cities with an international airport. The remaining area is classified as the non-trade hub area. This study uses novel data by utilizing night lights and lights per capita as proxies for income and income per capita, and by using the differences in night lights and lights per capita between trade hub areas and non-trade hub areas as proxies for rural-urban inequality. We employ the 2SLS model by using a time-variant instrument obtained from the gravity equation, which considers both sea distance and air distance. The instrument implies a reduction in transportation costs due to improvements in transportation technology that shifted trade from sea shipment to air cargo. We found that a one percent increase in exports increases the night lights per capita of trade hub areas and non-trade hub areas by 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively. We found that an increase in exports does not change the population of trade hub areas and non-trade hub areas. We found that a one percent increase in exports increases the difference in night lights per capita between trade hub areas and non-trade hub areas by 0.11 percent. The fact that trade increases urban-rural inequality and does not affect the population of the two areas suggests that there is a substantial barrier to migration from non-trade hub areas to trade hub areas.

講師

Shafiqullah Yousafzai 氏(筑波大学)

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ジェトロ・アジア経済研究所 APL幹事
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