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2026

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Understanding the Rise and Strains of Erdoğan’s Political Dominance in Turkey: From the Streetcar to the Presidential Convoy

Published in April 2026 No.77

Why does a leader who cemented his political dominance through a centralized presidential system increasingly struggle to deliver economic stability and political confidence? This column, based on my latest book on Turkey’s Erdoğan administration, argues that the answer lies in the gradual erosion of what can be called “attraction politics.” For much of his rule, Erdoğan maintained dominance not through coercion but through a combination of economic performance, social protection, and narrative control. These pillars sustained broad public support for nearly two decades. Yet they rested on constitutional institutions. Once the centralized presidential system eroded these institutions, the three pillars no longer translated into effective governance.

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China’s Export Boom Is Squeezing Middle-income Asia

Published in March 2026 No.76

Acquiring human capital and climbing the ladder of manufacturing sophistication are standard policy aspirations for middle-income countries. Recently China, itself a middle-income country, has expanded production and exports in product categories demanding of greater skills and technological complexity. Its success in production and exports has attenuated opportunities for similar countries to expand their own skill-intensive exports. We use a global trade model to quantify the effects of China’s growth on export opportunities for other countries, then explore the consequences of reduced relative skills demand for returns to schooling and incentives for skills development in those countries’ labor markets.

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Why the Digital World Isn't Flat

Published in March 2026 No.75

With the rise of digital platforms, it is often assumed that we have entered a "flat world" (Friedman 2007) where content can be delivered globally at no extra cost. In a recent article (Watabe, Yang, and Kanasheuski 2025), we challenge this assumption using data from the digital game platform Steam. We find that even in a purely digital environment where physical shipping costs are zero, consumers are still significantly less likely to purchase games developed in distant countries. Further analysis suggests that information barriers and cultural preferences prevent the digital economy from being truly borderless.

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When School Exams Collide with the Harvest Timing

Published in February 2026 No.74

In many rural economies, families rely heavily on seasonal farm work, and children’s labor can be essential during peak agricultural periods. When schools schedule high-stakes examinations during these peak seasons, parents choose between keeping their children in school or sending them to the fields to secure household income— facing the difficult task of weighing the immediate benefit of their children's labor against the potential long-term gains of continued schooling. This study finds that when national school examinations coincide with the main harvest season, dropout increases sharply among children from agricultural households—predominantly among boys of secondary-school age. This research highlights a largely overlooked constraint in education policy: the timing of the school year matters as much as the structure of schooling itself.