Discussion Papers

No.857 The Trade Effect of Economic Sanctions: Evidence from the 2022 Russia–Ukraine Conflict

by Kazunobu HAYAKAWA, Satoru KUMAGAI

July 2022


This study investigates the trade effects of the 2022 Russia–Ukraine war. We examine monthly data on bilateral trade between 40 countries and their 220 partner countries from January 2021 to May 2022. Estimating a gravity-type equation for this monthly dataset, we investigate how several key players, including the Western countries, China, and India, change their trade after February 2022. Our main findings are summarized as follows. On average, Western countries’ exports to and imports from Russia did not change significantly because some of them that have greater reliance on trade with Russia increased their trade with Russia. Nevertheless, the precision machinery industry found a significant decrease in the Western countries’ exports to Russia. Moreover, we found significant changes in the Western countries’ trade with Belarus and Ukraine in addition to those in Russia’s trade with China and India.

Keywords: Economic sanctions, Trade, Russia, Ukraine

JEL classification: F15, F53

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