Comprehensive Asia Development Plan and IDE-GSM toward African Geographical Data

IDE Research Bulletin

March 2016

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The Institute of Developing Economies (IDE) has been developing the Geographical Simulation Model (IDE-GSM) since 2007, which is a unique numerical general equilibrium simulation model based on New Economic Geography (NEG). IDE-GSM has two objectives, namely (1) to simulate the dynamics of locations of populations and industries in East Asia in the long term and (2) to analyze the impact of trade and transport facilitation measures (TTFMs) on the regional economy at the subnational level.

Our model comprises seven sectors, including manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, and more than 1,800 regions in 21 countries/economies in East and South Asia. The East and South Asian countries/economies are Bangladesh, Bhutan, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Lao PDR, Macao, Myanmar, Malaysia, Nepal, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam.

IDE-GSM enables us to predict the economic impacts of various TTFMs, such as lowering tariffs, customs facilitation measures, reduction in non-tariff barriers, and the development of transport infrastructure. In this project, we have carried out the analyses on various infrastructure development projects, economic corridors and FTA/RTAs using IDE-GSM. For instance, ASEAN economic integration is a complex of these TTFMs, and hard to predict the impacts without proper analytical tools. IDE-GSM provides references for better understanding of this multi-layered economic integration effort.

Our objective of the project this year is two-fold. First, we estimate the economic impacts of the Comprehensive Asia Development Plan (CADP). Second, we explore to develop new theoretical models, to estimate parameters on domestic and international border effects, to utilize a GIS for automatic calculation of sea distances, and to measure the speed of migration by utilizing remote sensing data. The details of each research are in the following papers.