Economic
sanctions
often
fail
to
achieve
their
stated
ends,
and
at
times
can
even
be
counter-productive.
The
mechanisms
that
lead
to
these
negative
outcomes
remain
unclear
in
the
literature
on
economic
sanctions
however.
One
prominent
theory
holds
that
sanctions
lead
to
a
rally-around-the-flag
effect,
which
generates
greater
support
for
the
targeted
regime
or
policy
than
would
otherwise
arise,
but
testing
this
view
at
the
individual
level
has
not
generally
been
possible
due
to
data
availability.
This
study
takes
advantage
of
an
individual-level
panel
survey
in
Ukraine
that
covers
the
period
during
which
a
political
dispute
in
2005-2006
between
Ukraine
and
the
Russian
Federation
led
to
a
cut
in
gas
exports
to
Ukraine,
and
subsequently,
dramatically
increasing
gas
prices.
The
findings
show
that
individuals
directly
affected
by
the
gas
supply
issues
were
significantly
more
likely
to
change
their
views
in
a
"pro-Western"
direction
following
the
dispute,
and
to
support
more
liberal
economic
policies
than
individuals
who
were
not
directly
affected.
This
effect
was
more
pronounced
for
Ukrainian
than
Russian
language
speakers,
suggesting
that
dimensions
of
both
identity
and
economic
harm
can
channel
the
impact
of
sanction
policies
on
public
opinion
following
the
use
of
economic
sanctions.
