Reports
Discussion Papers
No.994 Institutional Guardianship and Opposition Fragmentation in Egypt’s Post-2011 Transition
February 2026
ABSTRACT
This paper examines why Egypt’s revolutionary coalition rapidly fractured after 2011, despite sustained mass mobilization and evident regime vulnerability. Instead of attributing fragmentation to repression, organizational weakness, or elite manipulation, the paper advances an institutional argument centered on the opposition’s engagement with state bodies perceived as relatively autonomous and authoritative. Focusing on the military, the judiciary, and Al-Azhar, the analysis shows how inherited legacies of autonomy, public trust, and symbolic authority encouraged opposition actors to redirect political conflict toward institutional arbitration. Under conditions of uncertainty, engagement with these institutions offered stability and protection to or constraints on rivals. However, the reliance on guardianship displaced horizontal coordination, reduced incentives for compromise, and produced patterned forms of fragmentation as actors aligned with different institutional pathways. Nevertheless, institutions that appeared capable of mediating conflict during moments of crisis remained embedded within the authoritarian order and insulated decisive authority from electoral competition through their interventions. This paper argues that authoritarian reconstitution in Egypt was enabled by coercion and interactional dynamics in which opposition strategies of institutional appeal and the autonomy of state institutions reinforced one another.
Keywords: Institutional Autonomy, Opposition Fragmentation, Institutional Guardianship, Civil-Military Relations, Egypt’s Post-2011 Transition
JEL classification: D02, D72, D74
PDF available at https://hdl.handle.net/2344/0002001765
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