Reports
Discussion Papers
No.985 Who Fears Job Losses from U.S. Tariff Hikes? Evidence from Cambodia
January 2026
ABSTRACT
In April 2025, the U.S. introduced sharply higher tariff rates under a new “reciprocal tariff” system, raising serious concerns about potential employment impacts on export-oriented industries in developing countries. This paper examines Cambodian public perceptions of the tariff hikes using a phone-based survey of 600 households conducted between September and October 2025. We find that 58.5% of respondents disagreed that the tariff increases negatively affect their jobs, indicating limited perceived employment risk, while 25.9% expressed agreement. Regression analysis reveals substantial heterogeneity across income groups: low-income respondents employed in export industries are significantly more likely to perceive negative job impacts, whereas middle- and higher-income respondents show no meaningful direct-exposure effects. Indirect exposure reduces perceived risks among higher-income groups, reflecting their greater job stability and financial resilience.
Keywords: Trade policy, Reciprocal tariffs, Public opinion, Job loss, Cambodia
JEL classification: F13, F14, F16, J63, D84
PDF available at https://hdl.handle.net/2344/0002001721
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