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Discussion Papers
No.984 Growing Household Inequality amid Political Turmoil: Evidence from Myanmar
by Kiyoyasu TANAKA, Toshihiro KUDO
January 2026
ABSTRACT
This paper examines household welfare and inequality in Myanmar following political and economic disruptions between 2020 and 2024. To quantify first-order welfare effects through income and cost-of-living channels during the period, we conducted a new household survey to collect detailed information on income, expenditures, and prices. The results show that urban households experienced a 23% decline in nominal income and a 105% increase in living costs, resulting in an average welfare loss of 128%. Households in the bottom quintile faced a 30% decline in income and a 113% rise in living costs, leading to a 143% welfare loss. In contrast, those in the top experienced an 11% income decline and a 96% increase in costs, with a corresponding welfare loss of 107%. A follow-up survey shows that lower-income households make more drastic adjustments in response to deteriorating livelihoods, underscoring a pronounced negative impact of economic disruptions on the poor.
Keywords: Household, Welfare, Inequality, Inflation, Myanmar
JEL classification: D10, I32, R20, N35
PDF available at https://hdl.handle.net/2344/0002001720
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