Reports
Discussion Papers
No.978 The Effects of US Additional Tariffs in Trump 2.0 on Production and Trade: Evidence from Thailand
by Kazunobu Hayakawa, Souknilanh Keola, Sasatra Sudsawasd
September 2025
ABSTRACT
This study uses three types of data to quantify the impact of Trump 2.0 in Thailand. First, using product-level trade data from January 2023 to July 2025, we show that the additional US tariffs have significantly decreased automobiles and some steel/aluminum product exports to the US. In contrast, exports of auto parts and other items subject to additional tariffs do not change significantly. Second, using industry-level production data from the same period, we show that the additional US tariffs do not significantly change capacity utilization (except in the automotive sector), while firms appear to be gradually reducing their inventory levels. Finally, using firm-level export data for the US market in 2024 and 2025 (from January to July), we find that importers from China or Chinese firms improve their export ranking in the US in 2025. Such firms are also more likely to continue exporting to the US in 2025.
Keywords: Trump 2.0, Thailand, Tariffs, Transshipment, China
JEL classification: F15, F53
PDF available at https://hdl.handle.net/2344/0002001527
Please note that discussion papers are works in various stages of progress and most have not been edited and proofread and may contain errors of fact or judgment. Revised versions of these papers may subsequently appear in more formal publication series. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s). The IDE does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included and accepts no responsibility for any consequences arising from its use.