Discussion Papers

No.873 The Trade Impact of U.S.-China Conflict in Southeast Asia

by Kazunobu HAYAKAWA

October 2022


This study empirically examines the effects of the U.S.-China tariff war on exports to the U.S. from Southeast Asian countries and these countries’ imports from China. To do that, we estimate various equations for monthly trade during the period from January 2018 to December 2019. As a result, we found that some Southeast Asian countries increased their exports to the U.S. At the same time, some Southeast Asian countries also increased their imports from China. Most countries experienced either an increase in exports to the U.S. or an increase in imports from China, but not both. Exceptions include Cambodia and Vietnam, which had increases in both categories. In particular, we found some suggestive evidence that certain products made in China are re-exported to the U.S. through these countries to sidestep the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China.

Keywords: ASEAN, US-China trade war, Tariffs

JEL classification: F15, F53

Please note that discussion papers are works in various stages of progress and most have not been edited and proofread and may contain errors of fact or judgment. Revised versions of these papers may subsequently appear in more formal publication series. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s). The IDE does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included and accepts no responsibility for any consequences arising from its use.