No.873 The Trade Impact of U.S.-China Conflict in Southeast Asia
This study empirically examines the effects of the U.S.-China tariff war on exports to the U.S. from Southeast Asian countries and these countries’ imports from China. To do that, we estimate various equations for monthly trade during the period from January 2018 to December 2019. As a result, we found that some Southeast Asian countries increased their exports to the U.S. At the same time, some Southeast Asian countries also increased their imports from China. Most countries experienced either an increase in exports to the U.S. or an increase in imports from China, but not both. Exceptions include Cambodia and Vietnam, which had increases in both categories. In particular, we found some suggestive evidence that certain products made in China are re-exported to the U.S. through these countries to sidestep the tariffs imposed by the U.S. on China.
Keywords: ASEAN, US-China trade war, Tariffs
JEL classification: F15, F53
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