No.851 The US–China Relations and the Impact of the US–China Trade War: Global Value Chains Analyses
by Bo Meng, Yuning Gao, Tao Zhang, Jiabai Ye
This study investigates the US–China relations and examines the impact of the US–China trade war on the global economy through the lens of global value chains (GVCs). We begin by reviewing the history of US–China relations in GVCs from three perspectives: cooperation, competition, and conflict. Using trade in value-added as a metric, we show that the world economy is transitioning from “hyperglobalization” to “slowbalization,” with the corresponding US–China interdependence varying across different value-added creation processes in GVCs. With a focus on the ICT sector, one of the most contentious battlegrounds in the US–China trade war, our GVC-based network analysis investigates the changing power and influential area of both the United States and China in GVCs, considering multinationals’ activities. Furthermore, GVC-based computable general equilibrium analysis reveals that the impact of a trade war on an economy is highly dependent on its position and degree of participation in GVCs. The essence of the US–China trade war, the contradictory stances behind the trade war, and the outlook of the US–China relations in GVCs are discussed.
Keywords: The US–China relation, the US–China trade war, global value chain, trade in value added, multinational enterprise
JEL classification: F13, F15, F62, D57
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