Discussion Papers


by Kazunobu Hayakawa

September 2021


This paper examines how vaccinations modify the effect of coronavirus (COVID-19) on trade. We analyzed monthly level trade data from January 2019 to June 2021 that covered the bilateral trade of 31 reporting countries with 220 partner countries. The severity of COVID-19 damages was measured by the number of newly confirmed cases and the death toll. We found that, on average, the increase of confirmed cases and deaths significantly decreased both exports and imports. However, these negative effects were mitigated with the increase in vaccination doses, especially seen in the case of exports. Finally, the lockdown and restrictions severity started to dwindle with the increase in vaccination doses. We analyzed the relationship of vaccination doses on lockdowns and restrictions to gauge the impact of COVID-19 severity on international trade.

Keywords: COVID-19, trade, vaccination

JEL classification: F15, F53

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