Impacts of Lockdown Policies on International Trade

Discussion Papers


by Kazunobu Hayakawa, Hiroshi Mukunoki

September 2020


The aim of this study is to quantify how lockdown policies implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic affected international trade in the first half of 2020. We examine monthly world trade data between January and June in both 2019 and 2020. Our findings can be summarized as follows. Stay-at-home orders did not have significant and robust effects on trade. Negative effects were found in only some industries, including those producing durable products and essential products. However, workplace closures had significantly negative effects on trade, except for intra-Asian trade. These effects of workplace closures can be found in most industries.

Keywords: COVID-19, International trade, Lockdown

JEL classification: F15, F53

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