Reports
Discussion Papers
No.456 Trajectories and Outcomes of the‘Arab Spring’: Comparing Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria
March 2014
ABSTRACT
Almost
three
years
have
passed
since
the
‘Arab
Spring’
began
in
late
2010.
In
the
major
sites
of
popular
uprisings,
political
conditions
remain
unsettled
or
violent.
Despite
similarities
in
their
original
opposition
to
authoritarian
rule,
the
outcomes
differed
from
country
to
country.
In
Tunisia
and
Egypt,
processes
of
transiting
from
authoritarian
rule
produced
contrasting
consequences
for
democratic
politics.
Uprisings
led
to
armed
rebellion
in
Libya
and
Syria,
but
whereas
Gaddafi
was
overthrown,
Asad
was
not.
What
explains
the
different
trajectories
and
outcomes
of
the
Arab
Spring?
How
were
these
shaped
by
the
power
structure
and
levels
of
social
control
of
the
pre-uprising
regimes
and
their
state
institutions,
on
the
one
hand,
and
by
the
character
of
the
societies
and
oppositional
forces
that
rose
against
them?
Comparing
Tunisia
with
Egypt,
and
Libya
with
Syria,
this
paper
discusses
various
factors
that
account
for
variations
in
the
trajectories
and
outcomes
of
the
Arab
Spring,
namely,
the
legacy
of
the
previous
regime,
institutional
and
constitutional
choices
during
“transition”
from
authoritarian
rule,
socioeconomic
conditions,
and
the
presence
of
absence
of
ethnic,
sectarian
and
geographic
diversity.
Keywords:
institutions,
transition,
Islamists,
Egypt,
Tunisia,
Syrian,
Libya
JEL
classification:
N15,
N17,
P16
Please note that discussion papers are works in various stages of progress and most have not been edited and proofread and may contain errors of fact or judgment. Revised versions of these papers may subsequently appear in more formal publication series. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s). The IDE does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included and accepts no responsibility for any consequences arising from its use.