Reports
Discussion Papers
No.202 Economic Voting and Electoral Volatility in Turkish Provinces
May 2009
ABSTRACT
Two groups of questions were addressed: (1) Is voter punishment of the incumbent the primary factor in electoral volatility? Are there any other types of vote swings that underlie volatility? (2) In general, does a decline in economic growth destabilize voter behavior? If so, what kinds of vote swings does an economic downturn tend to generate? Provincial-level panel data analysis yielded the following results: (1) Changes in volatility appear to be primarily due to vote swings from the incumbent to the opposition and also to and from left-wing and right-wing parties. (2) Lower economic growth appears to increase electoral volatility by inducing vote swings not only from the government to the opposition but also from left-wing to right-wing parties. This is because right-wing parties better represent lower-income voters than left-wing parties and also seem more concerned with economic issues.
Keywords: electoral volatility, economic voting, Turkey, panel analysis
Please note that discussion papers are works in various stages of progress and most have not been edited and proofread and may contain errors of fact or judgment. Revised versions of these papers may subsequently appear in more formal publication series. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s). The IDE does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included and accepts no responsibility for any consequences arising from its use.