Reports
Discussion Papers
No.231 A Critical Review of Opinion Polls relating to Iranian Voting Intentions: Problems of Research Methodology as applied to Complex Societies
March 2010
ABSTRACT
After
the
10th
Iranian
Presidential
election
on
June
12,
2009,
several
public
opinion
polls
taken
in
Iran
attracted
the
attention
of
policy-makers
and
journalists
around
the
world
because
of
the
political
crisis
that
followed.
In
this
paper
I
first
review
critically
the
polls
conducted
by
the
WPO
(WorldPublicOpinion.org),
PIPA
(Program
on
International
Policy
Attitudes)
at
the
University
of
Maryland.
I
also
review
an
essay
by
Steven
Kull,
which
is
based
on
the
aforementioned
poll
results
and
which
in
my
opinion
leads
to
false
conclusions
concerning
Iran’s
political
prospects.
I
also
discuss
“An
Analysis
of
Multiple
Polls
of
the
Iranian
Public,”
published
by
WPO-PIPA
on
February
3
2010.
The
present
paper
arrives
at
the
overall
conclusion
that
it
is
impossible
to
obtain
an
accurate
image
of
political
opinions
in
societies
as
complicated
as
that
of
Iran
by
concentrating
on
only
one
technique
of
research
and
analysis,
especially
when
the
political
and
social
situation
in
the
society
concerned
is
in
a
state
of
constant
flux.
Keywords:
Iran,
Presidential
election,
opinion
polls,
political
crisis
Please note that discussion papers are works in various stages of progress and most have not been edited and proofread and may contain errors of fact or judgment. Revised versions of these papers may subsequently appear in more formal publication series. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s). The IDE does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included and accepts no responsibility for any consequences arising from its use.