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Discussion Papers
No.1012 Crisis-Specific Gulfization of Stock Markets: Multipolar Shock Sources in GCC Spillovers
by Jun Saito
August 2026
ABSTRACT
This study examines crisis-period spillovers between GCC stock markets and recipient markets in MENA, Asia, and Africa through the lens of “Gulfization.” Using VARX models and 12-step-ahead FEVD, it compares the Global Financial Crisis, the oil price bust, and the COVID-19 crisis. The results show that GCC-related spillovers are strongest during COVID-19 and weakest during the oil price bust. They also reveal a multipolar structure: Saudi Arabia does not consistently dominate, while Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Oman, and Kuwait emerge as important contributors depending on the crisis and recipient market. These findings suggest that crisis-specific Gulfization is a multipolar financial linkage shaped by crisis type and recipient-market conditions.
Keywords: Gulfization, GCC stock markets, financial spillovers, financial connectedness, VARX-FEVD, crisis transmission
JEL classification: G15, C32, G01, F36, Q43
PDF available at https://hdl.handle.net/2344/0002002009
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