Reports
Discussion Papers
No.1010 Trapped by Dependence: Myanmar’s Trade Structure and Economic Vulnerability
May 2026
ABSTRACT
This paper examines the structural roots of Myanmar’s external trade dependence and associated policy weaknesses. Despite its strategic location, the economy remains narrowly diversified and reliant on a few partners, notably China and Thailand. Using mirror trade data and Herfindahl–Hirschman-based indices, the study analyzes product and market diversification across the USDP (2011–2015), NLD (2016–2020), and SAC/SSPC (2021–2024) periods. Results show that recent export diversification reflects redistribution within existing products rather than industrial upgrading, while import dependence has become increasingly concentrated. Empirical evidence also indicates that reliance on China for imports intensified after the 2021 coup. These findings underscore the need for stronger policy coordination, industrial development, and broader economic diversification.
Keywords: Myanmar, Economic policy, Economic Security, Trade Dependence
PDF available at https://hdl.handle.net/2344/0002001874
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