Towards Sustained Growth
ASEDP
No.31
CONTENTS
Preface
CHAPTER 1.
Structural Shifts in Key Macro Parameters: Implications on the Sustainability of Growth / Jpseph Y.Lim
2. The Decline in Investment Shares
3. Insufficient Infrastructures and Capacity
4. Decline in Domestic Savings Share
5. Shifts in Industry and Relative Prices
6. The External Transactions
6-1. The Trade Components
6-2. Other Current Account Items
6-3. External Capital Account
7. The Fiscal Sector
8. Summary and Conclusion
References
CHAPTER 2.
Fiscal Policy for Sustainable Growth / Benjamin E. Diokno
2. Research Questions
3. State of Fiscal Affairs
3-1. Pattern of Revenues
3-2. Pattern of Expenditures
3-3. Debt Service Remains Large
3-4. Infrastructure Needs Remain Unaddressed
3-5. Budgetary Priorities Changed
4. Fiscal Outlook
4-1. Low Tax Effort
4-2. Debt Ratio Remains High
4-3. Rising Spending for Infrastructure to Address
Backlogs and needs for a Fast Growing Economy
4-4. Reemergence of Large Budgetary support to Government Corporations
4-5. Mounting Pressure for New Programs and Expansion of Existing Programs
5. Policy Prescriptions
References
CHAPTER 3.
Debt management in the Philippines, 1980 to 1993 / Cayetano Paderanga, Jr.
2. Philippine Debt Revisited
3. Sustainability of the Public Debt
4. Policy Implication of Public Debt Management
4-1. how Sustainability was Addressed
4-2. Policy Issues
5. Conclusion
6. Sources of Basic Data
References
Appendix Notes on the Decomposition of r
Figures
Tables
CHAPTER 4.
2. Industrial Repression in the Philippines
3. The Underlying Mechanism causing the Repression
4. Inflation in the Philippines: 1987-1992
4-1. Wage Rate
4-2. Imported Goods Price
5. Interest Rates, Money Market and Financial Intermediaries in the Philippines
5-1. The Money Market and its Interest Rates
5-2. Financial Intermediaries and their Interest Rates
5-3. TB Rate and the Euro-dollar Rate
6. Money supply and Inflation
6-1. Reserve Money
7. Summary and Conclusions
References
CHAPTER 5.
On Recent Financial Flows: Causes and Consequences / Emmanuel S. de Dios
2. A Simple Framework
3. Lower Interest Rates Cum Appreciation: A Perverse Relationship?
4. Real Exchange Rate Changes
5. Differential Sectoral Impact
6. Why There is No Quick Fix
7. Recent Policies - Compensation As Solution?
8. The Limits of Monetary and Fiscal policies
References
Appendices
CHAPTER 6.
Agriculture in Transition: Arresting Poverty in the Rural Sector / Arsenio M. Balisacan
2. What Is Happening to Rural poverty?
3. Agriculture performance
4. Policy Reforms and Policy Reversals
5. An Opening of the Re-making of Agricultural Policy
6. Conclusions and Implications
Endnotes
References
CHAPTER 7.
Employment, Competitiveness and Growth:1980-1994 / Emmanuel F. Esguerra
2. Data, Sources and Related Work
3. The Employment Situation
3-1. Aggregates
3-2. Sectoral Distribution
3-3. Class of Worker and Occupational Distribution
3-4. Unemployment and Underemployment
4. Employment Generation and the Macroeconomic Environment
4-1. Employment Creating Policies
4-2. Macroeconomics Performance and Employment
5. Sustaining Employment by Increasing Competitiveness
6. Summary
References
Chapter 8.
Sustainability of the 1994 Economic Recovery: Portents From the Past / Raul V. Fabella
2. NIChood as Redemption
3. A Second Faux Paus
4. The Brownouts and the Flagship Projects
5. The Enabling Macroeconomic Environment
6. The Ramos Recovery: Past Forward?
6-1. 1986-1989: The Aquino Recovery
6-2. 1976-1980: Marcos Ascendant
6-3. 1966-1970: Marcos and Rural Infrastructure
6-4. Euphoria and the 1949 Crisis
6-5. The Cheap Dollar and Major Substitution of the 1950s
7. Epilogue
References