The Developing Economies
Volume 40, Number 1 (March 2002)
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CONTENTS
Designs and Implementation of Indonesian Social Safety Net Programs (152KB) / Sudarno Sumarto, Asep Suryahadi, and Wenefrida Widyanti
Personal Tax Exemption: the Effect on Fertility in Taiwan (57KB) / Jr-Tsung Huang
Output Adjustment in Developing Countries: A Structural VAR Approach (92KB) / Steven Morling
E-Business in the South African Apparel Sector: A Utopian Vision of Efficiency? (102KB) / Sagren Moodley
Book Reviews
Abstract
Sudarno
Sumarto,
Asep
Suryahadi,
and
Wenefrida
Widyanti,
"Designs
and
Implementation
of
Indonesian
Social
Safety
Net
Programs,"
pp.
3-31.
Designing
and
implementing
social
safety
net
programs
in
1998
was
a
new
experience
for
Indonesia.
The
looming
severe
social
impact
of
the
financial
crisis,
which
started
in
mid-1997,
forced
the
government
to
act
rapidly
to
safeguard
real
income
and
access
to
social
services
for
the
poor
by
instituting
new
and
expanded
programs.
The
success
of
social
safety
net
programs
depends
on
a
smooth
disbursement
of
program
budgets
and
effectively
targeting
allocations
to
the
poor.
But
the
findings
of
this
study
indicate
that
all
of
the
programs
suffer
from
ineffective
targeting
and
some
programs
suffer
from
under-implementation.
This
has
resulted
in
a
twofold
problem:
an
undercoverage
of
the
poor
and
a
leakage
of
benefits
to
the
nonpoor.
This
problem
points
to
the
difficulties
in
designing
and
implementing
any
program
that
provides
cash
or
in-kind
transfer
in
a
developing
country
as
large
and
diverse
as
Indonesia.
Jr-Tsung
Huang,
"Personal
Tax
Exemption:
the
Effect
on
Fertility
in
Taiwan,"
pp.
32-48.
This
study
utilizes
official
regional-based
panel
data
on
Taiwan,
from
1990
to
1996,
to
investigate
the
value
of
the
personal
tax
exemption
in
a
family's
income
tax
in
terms
of
its
effect
on
birth
behavior.
The
estimation
results
demonstrate
that
the
value
of
a
personal
tax
exemption
has
a
positive
and
statistically
significant
effect
on
the
general
fertility
rate.
This
conclusion
also
holds
after
excluding
the
wife's
earnings
in
the
empirical
model
for
the
sake
of
potential
endogeneity
between
the
wife's
earnings
and
fertility.
This
study
thus
suggests
that
a
family
income
tax
policy
may
be
an
effective
tool
for
bringing
about
an
increase
in
the
general
fertility
rate
in
Taiwan,
and
hence,
a
means
of
mitigating
Taiwan's
population-aging
problem.
However,
the
cost
to
the
government
to
induce
a
single
additional
birth
would
be
very
high.
Steven
Morling,
"Output
Adjustment
in
Developing
Countries:
A
Structural
VAR
Approach,"
pp.
49-66.
This
paper
examines
whether
temporary
fluctuations
in
output
around
potential
in
developing
countries
are
induced
primarily
by
aggregate
demand
shocks
or
temporary
aggregate
supply
shocks.
Structural
vector
autoregression
(VAR)
methodology
using
long-run
restrictions
is
used
to
identify
temporary
output
shocks
for
a
large
sample
of
developing
countries.
Impulse
response
functions
are
used
to
examine
whether
the
temporary
shocks
behave
like
demand
or
supply
shocks.
The
permanent/transitory
decomposition
appears
to
split
the
shocks
into
permanent
supply
shocks,
and
temporary
demand
or
supply
shocks
depending
on
which
influence
dominates
in
a
particular
country.
In
slightly
more
than
half
of
the
countries,
temporary
shocks
behave
like
temporary
aggregate
supply
shocks
while
in
slightly
less
than
half
of
the
countries
the
temporary
shocks
behave
like
aggregate
demand
shocks.
Sagren
Moodley,
"E-Business
in
the
South
African
Apparel
Sector:
A
Utopian
Vision
of
Efficiency?"
pp.
67-100.
The
internet
is
enabling
a
much
tighter
integration
between
manufacturing
and
both
downstream
and
upstream
activities
in
the
apparel
value
chain.
The
global
apparel
industry
is
moving
in
the
direction
of
e-business,
from
the
management
of
inputs
and
design
to
marketing
and
sales.
The
formerly
inwardly
oriented
South
Africa
apparel
sector
cannot
afford
to
miss
out
on
these
internet-related
developments.
E-business
provides
South
African
apparel
firms
with
the
technology
to
manage
their
supply
chains
more
efficiently
and
to
tap
into
both
domestic
and
international
procurement
systems.
Apparel
firms
which
export
have
the
most
to
gain
in
adopting
e-business
technologies
due
to
its
promise
of
improved
market
penetration,
and
its
direct
link
to
international
competitiveness.
Despite
strong
theoretical
arguments
suggesting
that
e-business
has
much
to
offer
the
garments
industry,
the
empirical
evidence
would
seem
to
suggest
that
e-business
in
the
South
African
apparel
sector
is
still
in
its
infancy.