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Indonesia's 2019 Elections: The Reelection of Joko Widodo amid Deepening Polarization

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Indonesia's 2019 Elections: The Reelection of Joko Widodo amid Deepening Polarization

Authors/Editors

Publication date

October 2020

ISBN

978-4-258-30033-4

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About this book

About this book

The Institute of Developing Economies (IDE) has been conducting an ongoing research project on Indonesian election since democratization in 1998. Indonesia has held democratic elections every five years since 1999. Accordingly, this is fifth volume produced as part of IDE’s ongoing efforts to understand electoral processes in Indonesia.

This book focuses on the 2019 presidential and legislative elections and analyzes recent developments in Indonesian politics and economics. The process and results of elections reflect changes in the country’s democracy and society. To understand the implications of the 2019 Indonesian elections, the contributors investigate a wide range of issues, including voting behavior, the role of Islamic organizations, the role of social media in electoral strategies, social movements against a backdrop of polarization, and the social backgrounds of elected politicians. To grasp the changes that occurred during the five years between elections, they also review the politics, economy, and social policies during the first term of the Joko Widodo administration. Finally, the book concludes with a discussion of the prospects for the second term of the Joko Widodo administration.

Contents

Contents

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Preface

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Introduction – The 2019 Elections and the First Term of the Joko Widodo Administration in Retrospect

Author:Koichi Kawamura

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Part 1 Analyzing the 2019 Elections

Chapter 1 The 2019 Presidential Election: Polarization of Society and Voting Behavior

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Chapter 2 Mobilizing the Islamic Vote: Nahdlatul Ulama United

Author:Yuka Kayane

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Chapter 3 The Beginning of Indonesian Politics in the Post-Truth Era: Big Data, AI, and Micro-targeting

Author:Masaaki Okamoto and Akihiro Kameda

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Chapter 4 Gender Politics and the Presidential Election: The Bill on the Elimination of Sexual Violence, a Victim of Polarization

Author:Ken Miichi

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Chapter 5 The 2019 Legislative Election: Fixing Voter Partisanship

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Chapter 6 Social Backgrounds of Members of Parliament Elected in 2019 and Their Changes during 20 Years of Democratization: The Rise of Entrepreneurs and Local Politicians as Two Powers

Author:Akiko Morishita

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Part 2 From the First to the Second Term of the Joko Widodo Administration

Chapter 7 The Politics of the First Term of the Joko Widodo Administration: The Rise of Conservative Islam and Democratic Regression

Author:Koichi Kawamura

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Chapter 8 The Economics of the First Term of the Joko Widodo Administration: Analysis of Growth, Employment, and Poverty Reduction

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Chapter 9 Redistributive Policy under the Joko Widodo Administration: Development of the Social Security System and Social Aid Programs

Author:Ayako Masuhara

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Chapter 10 Prospects for the Second Term of the Joko Widodo Administration

Author:Yuri Sato

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Data

1. List of Political Parties in the 2019 General Elections
2. Results of the 2019 Presidential Election by Province
3. Results of the 2019 Legislative Election by Electoral District
4. Members of the Joko Widodo Cabinet for the Second Term (Kabinet Indonesia Maju)

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Preface

Preface

Five years have passed quickly. We have organized a joint research project with Indonesian scholars in Japan for each election, which takes place every five years, analyzing various aspects of each election and contemporary issues facing Indonesia. We published four books as products of our analysis: Indonesia Wahid Shin-Seiken no Tanjo to Kadai [The Inauguration of the Wahid Administration and Its Challenges] (in Japanese, edited by Yuri Sato, Institute of Developing Economies, 1999) and its English version, Indonesia Entering a New Era: Abdurrahman Wahid Government and Its Challenge (edited by Yuri Sato, Institute of Developing Economies, 2000) which analyzes the 1999 general election held immediately after the country's democratization; Indonesia Sosenkyo to Shin-Seiken no Shido: Megawati kara Yudhoyono e [The Indonesian General Election and the Start of the New Administration: From Megawati to Yudhoyono] (in Japanese, edited by Kazuhisa Matsui & Koichi Kawamura, Akashi Shoten, 2005) which analyzes the 2004 election in which a direct presidential election system was introduced; 2009nen Indonesia no Senkyo: Yudhoyono Saisen no Haikei to Dai2ki Seiken no Tenbo [The Indonesian 2009 Election: The Background of Yudhoyono's Re-election and the Prospects for the Second-Term Administration (in Japanese, edited by Jun Honna & Koichi Kawamura, Institute of Developing Economies, 2010) which analyzes the election held in 2009; and Shinko Minsyusyugi Taikoku Indonesia: Yudhoyono Seiken no 10nen to Jokowi Ddaitoryo no Tanjo [Indonesia, an Emerging Democratic Power: The Ten Years of the Yudhoyono Administration and the Inauguration of President Jokowi] (in Japanese, edited by Koichi Kawamura, Institute of Developing Economies, 2015) which analyzes the 2014 election in a wide context of established democracy in Indonesia. Then, another election year arrived after five years. We were able to organize a joint research project entitled "Analysis of the 2019 Indonesian Presidential and General Elections" (an IDE-JETRO timely research project) in time for the 2019 election and now present our fifth product to readers.

Publishing five books at five-year intervals means that this history of democracy in Indonesia spans more than 20 years. During the period, Indonesian democracy in its infancy subsequently managed to stand on its own and then reached its maturity. The history, however, did not end there. As in other democracies, Indonesia has seen its democracy constantly wavering as society changes. Although we used the term "emerging democratic power" in the title of the book produced based on the joint research conducted five years ago, the reality shows that a democratic power does not necessarily experience stable democracy.

Elections, which are held every five years, function like a mirror, reflecting changes in Indonesia's democracy and political development. What political changes in Indonesia can we discern based on the 2019 election? The first goal of this book is to provide a clear answer to this question. This book analyzes the 2019 election from the standpoint of people's voting behavior, Islam, election strategy, social movements, and politicians' social backgrounds. Analyzing various aspects of the election from multiple angles reveals changes taking place in Indonesian democracy. Each election clearly reflects political, economic, and social changes that occurred between it and the previous election. This book therefore reviews the kinds of changes that took place in politics, the economy, and society during the first term of the Joko Widodo (or Jokowi) administration (2014-2019). The second goal of this book is to discuss future prospects regarding the performance of the second-term Jokowi administration (2019-2024), taking into account those changes.

During the process of publishing this book, I made a demanding request to the busy authors to write a paper in a short period of time. I also had two anonymous reviewers read through a draft of the entire book and very much benefited from their comments. In addition, I received tremendous support from many colleagues in running research seminars and publishing the final product. In particular, I would like to thank all who worked on editing during the coronavirus pandemic that started in March 2020. Despite all this help, the publication of this book was significantly delayed from the original plan because of my shortcomings as an editor. I offer my sincere apologies to those who have been affected.

In passing, some of the results of the joint research were published from April 2019 to August 2019 in six articles in IDE Square, an online magazine of the Institute of Developing Economies, which featured the 2019 Indonesian election (https://www.ide.go.jp/Japanese/IDEsquare/SpecialTopics/Indonesia_Elections2019.html). I hope that readers will refer to those articles as well.

Editor

May 2020