APL (Ajiken Power Lunch)

APL (Ajiken Power Lunch) is a lunchtime workshop open to public, including IDE staffs, visiting research fellows, IDEAS students, outside researchers and graduate students. This workshop provides a platform for presentation of any work in progress where we can discuss in either English or Japanese.

Those who would attend a seminar are asked to announce yourself to receptionists on your arrival at the IDE and to obtain APL Organizers' signature on your admission card after the seminar.

November 13, 2019. (Wednesday) 15:00-16:30

Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization C21 Meeting Room 　

Developing Asia's Short-Term Economic Outlook - the View from ADB

Developing Asia's growth momentum is slowing, with growth declining from 5.9% in 2018 to a projected 5.4% in 2019 and 5.5% in 2020. The moderation is primarily due to a deterioration of the external environment, which is also having spillover effects on domestic demand. Downside risks continue to significantly outweigh upside risks, which are few and far in between. The US-PRC trade conflict remains the single biggest downside risk to the region's economic growth and financial stability. Updated ADB analysis indicates that the PRC stands to experience sizable losses to its growth as a result of the conflict but the effects on other Asian countries are less clear cut. Another substantial risk stems from the rapid growth of public and private debt in developing Asia since the global financial crisis. New empirical analysis by ADB confirms that both public and private debt can adversely affect the region's financial stability. In particular, the analysis finds a robust and significant relationship between private debt and financial vulnerability.

Donghyun Park and Shu Tian (Asian Development Bank)

Kiyoyasu Tanaka and Kenmei Tsubota

English