July 5, 2013, (Friday)
National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) Soukairou Hall

>>>>Event Guide/Program

Robert Koopman
Director of Operations, The United States International Trade Commission (USITC)

The influence of China on the U.S. as reflected in trade data shows that the Chinese economy has grown rapidly and now has a large share in U.S. imports. According to traditional trade data, overall imports from China increased steadily. However, a re-examination of the trade balance taking into account the current state of the international division of labor resulted in a significant decrease in the U.S. trade deficit with China in 2004 and an increase in trade deficits with Japan and 15 EU countries.

A study by the U.S. International Trade Commission using a GVC model predicts that the Chinese economy will be a consumer-driven economy in 2030 if the savings rate decreases. Looking at GDP by industry, the share of the manufacturing sector will decrease by 2030, while the share of the service sector will increase. In terms of exports to the U.S. by industry, the growth of China will be driven not by investment but by consumption until 2030, and as a result, the equilibrium pattern of U.S. trade with China will change.

Just as various elements of industrial sectors are important, behind-the-border issues are also important. While the TPP can be an initiative for free trade, international services agreements (TA2) are also becoming important. It is necessary to view the policy environment slowly from a broad perspective without paying too much attention to what is happening in China and other countries. Generally speaking, a good economic policy is the one that forms the basis for growth for decades. An economy sees relatively significant changes decade-by-decade, and this has enormous impact on policy issues for the future.