APL (Ajiken Power Lunch)

Thursday, 24th of October, 12:00 to 1:15 p.m.

IDE-JETRO C22 Meeting Room

This paper applies a mental model approach to study the role of tenure security in farmers’ decision-making on agricultural investment in Uganda. We investigate the role that both perceived tenure security and formal land rights play, measured by the possession of land certificates. Our focus is on investment in improved seeds, a widely applied strategy in agricultural development and climate change adaptation. The study design leverages the roll-out of a large land demarcation and registration project, which creates exogenous variation in farmers’ formal tenure security. Results show that, in contrast to expectations derived from economic theory, tenure security plays only a minor role in farmers’ decision-making process to invest in improved seeds. Out of 15 potential factors determining a farmer’s investment decision, both perceived tenure security and possession of a land certificate are among the least chosen factors, regardless of whether or not households participated in the land registration project. An instrumental variable analysis shows that participation in the land registration project had no effect on the perceived importance of tenure security in the investment decision-making process.

Dr Lisa Murken (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

Masaru Nagashima