APL (Ajiken Power Lunch)

APL (Ajiken Power Lunch) is a lunchtime workshop open to public, including IDE staffs, visiting research fellows, IDEAS students, outside researchers and graduate students. This workshop provides a platform for presentation of any work in progress where we can discuss in either English or Japanese.

Those who would attend a seminar are asked to announce yourself to receptionists on your arrival at the IDE and to obtain APL Organizers' signature on your admission card after the seminar.

February 25, 2019. (Monday) 11:00-12:30

Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization C24 Meeting Room 　

Global Adjustment to Disengagement of the US from the World Trading System

US threats of trade wars, withdrawal from existing trade agreements, and expanded import protection is leading to retaliation from its trading partners. The reaction of the rest of the world has been to support the existing system and to pursue new and expanded regional trade agreements that do not include the US. The result may be US disengagement from the world trading system, with countries diverting trade around the US. We consider a variety of disengagement scenarios using a global CGE model. We find that the relative role of the US in world trade has been declining over the past thirty-forty years, with expansion of the roles of the EU and East and Southeast (E&SE) Asia. Global adjustment to US disengagement is feasible?the changes in trade shares as countries adjust are modest and achievable.

Dr. Sherman Robinson (Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE))

Tomohiro Machikita

English