APL (Ajiken Power Lunch)

APL (Ajiken Power Lunch) is a lunchtime workshop open to public, including IDE staffs, visiting research fellows, IDEAS students, outside researchers and graduate students. This workshop provides a platform for presentation of any work in progress where we can discuss in either English or Japanese.

Those who would attend a seminar are asked to announce yourself to receptionists on your arrival at the IDE and to obtain APL Organizers' signature on your admission card after the seminar.

May 18, 2015. (Monday) 12：30-14：00

Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization C23 Meeting Room 　

The Persistence of Low Long-Term Interest Rates in the U.S.

Long-term interest rates in U.S. have remained quite low since the advent of the Great Recession. The nominal yield on the 10 year U.S. Treasury Note is below 2.0% as of early April. The long term interest rate has been persistent low even though it appears that the Federal Reserve has prepared the ground for a hike in the fed funds target range (the policy rate) sometimes this year. The labor market in the U.S. has been recovering. The labor market has witnessed a healthy pace of job growth of about 160K per month for the past 48 months, resulting in the decline of the official unemployment rate to 5.5% as of March 2015. House prices have been rising in most metropolitan areas in the U.S. since late 2012. Auto sales have been improving. Business investment fixed is advancing gradually. Nevertheless the pace of economic growth has remained fairly disappointing since the end of the Great Recession. Housing construction activity and sales have lingered in a soft patch. Global economic conditions in the euro zone and the Asia/Pacific region are weak, resulting in soft exports for the U.S. Wage growth is fairly tepid, while the rates of headline inflation and core inflation are markedly below policymakers’ long-run target. Looking ahead there are several crucial questions for U.S. policymakers and global investors: (1) What is the outlook for the U.S. monetary policy? (2) When will the Federal Reserve begin to raise the fed funds target rate? (3) Are long-term interest rates destined to remain low in the coming years? This presentation will address these issues.

Dr. Tanweer Akram (PhD. Vice President/Senior Economist, Voya Investment Management, USA)

Abu SHONCHOY

English