Seminars & Events

APL (Ajiken Power Lunch)

The effect of economic statecraft on public opinion: the case of the Russia-Ukraine gas disputes

APL (Ajiken Power Lunch) is a lunchtime workshop open to public, including IDE staffs, visiting research fellows, IDEAS students, outside researchers and graduate students. This workshop provides a platform for presentation of any work in progress where we can discuss in either English or Japanese.

Those who would attend a seminar are asked to announce yourself to receptionists on your arrival at the IDE and to obtain APL Organizers' signature on your admission card after the seminar.


January 27, 2016. (Wednesday) 15:00-16:30


The effect of economic statecraft on public opinion: the case of the Russia-Ukraine gas disputes


Economic sanctions often fail to achieve their stated ends, and at times can even be counter-productive. The mechanisms that lead to these negative outcomes remain unclear in the literature on economic sanctions however. One prominent theory holds that sanctions lead to a rally-around-the-flag effect, which generates greater support for the targeted regime or policy than would otherwise arise, but testing this view at the individual level has not generally been possible due to data availability. This study takes advantage of an individual-level panel survey in Ukraine that covers the period during which a political dispute in 2005-2006 between Ukraine and the Russian Federation led to a cut in gas exports to Ukraine, and subsequently, dramatically increasing gas prices. The findings show that individuals directly affected by the gas supply issues were significantly more likely to change their views in a "pro-Western" direction following the dispute, and to support more liberal economic policies than individuals who were not directly affected. This effect was more pronounced for Ukrainian than Russian language speakers, suggesting that dimensions of both identity and economic harm can channel the impact of sanction policies on public opinion following the use of economic sanctions.


William Seitz



Institute of Developing Economies, APL Organizers
KIM, Jiyoung E-mail:Jiyoung_KimE-mail
LEI, Lei E-mail:Lei_LeiE-mail
OSADA, Noriyuki E-mail:Noriyuki_OsadaE-mail