APL (Ajiken Power Lunch)

APL (Ajiken Power Lunch) is a lunchtime workshop open to public, including IDE staffs, visiting research fellows, IDEAS students, outside researchers and graduate students. This workshop provides a platform for presentation of any work in progress where we can discuss in either English or Japanese.

Those who would attend a seminar are asked to announce yourself to receptionists on your arrival at the IDE and to obtain APL Organizers' signature on your admission card after the seminar.

November 30, 2017. (Thursday) 14：00-15：30

Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization C22 Meeting Room 　

Prospects for the Global Economy

The global economy is projected to expanded at a moderate pace this year and the next, though below the pace prior to the Global Financial Crisis. This presentation will examine the divergence in the performances of the major advanced economies and emerging markets and the challenges ahead for the global economy. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has been raising the fed funds target rate. The Fed will be reducing the size of its balance sheet, even though inflation remains below target. The euro zone is experiencing a recovery despite underlying institutional problems that remain unaddressed. Japan is showing signs of a modest recovery though it is uncertain whether the Bank of Japan will be able to achieve its inflation target on a sustained basis anytime in the near future. China has managed to sustain growth due to fiscal stimulus and a large increase in corporate leverage. The UK has fared much better than expected but it faces the uncertainty of a hard Brexit. Despite the ongoing moderate recovery, risks to the global economy are tilted to the downside. The rise of protectionist sentiments, fragility in financial markets, political gridlocks, and geopolitical conflicts are near-term risks. The aging of the population and climate change pose serious long-term challenges.

Tanweer Akram (THRIVENT FINANCIAL)

Lei Lei

English