Assessing the Impact of China Shocks on the Trade Creation Effect in ASEAN

Discussion Papers

No.801

by Kazunobu Hayakawa

September 2020

ABSTRACT

Policymakers in ASEAN countries are concerned that an explosive increase in imports from China has dampened intra-ASEAN trade. This study empirically examines the effect of imports from China on intra-ASEAN trade. We employ a two-step approach. First, we estimate the product-level gravity equation with the full set of fixed effects on intra-ASEAN trade. Second, we regress the estimates of importer-product-year-fixed effects on the share of imports from China that constitute all imports in addition to intra-ASEAN tariffs. As is consistent with the concern above, we found that from 2000 to 2015, increases in ASEAN imports from China reduced intra-ASEAN trade by 20%. Such an increase in imports from China is equivalent to the rise of intra-ASEAN tariffs by 20%.

Keywords: China shocks, ASEAN, Trade creation effect

JEL classification: F15, F53

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