Impacts of COVID-19 on International Trade: Evidence from the First Quarter of 2020
by Kazunobu Hayakawa, Hiroshi Mukunoki
The aim of this study is to present early evidence for the impacts of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on international trade. Accordingly, we investigate trade among 186 countries in the first quarter of 2020. The disease burden of COVID-19 is measured in terms of the number of cases and deaths. Our findings can be summarized as follows. First, the COVID-19 burden in exporting countries, but in not importing countries, has a significantly negative effect on trade. Second, this negative impact of exporters’ COVID-19 burden is seen in exports from developing countries but not from developed countries. Third, the COVID-19 burden in an exporter’s neighboring countries has a positive effect on its exports. Fourth, importers’ COVID-19 burden has positive effects on trade in the agricultural industry, whereas exporters’ COVID-19 burden has negative effects, particularly in the textile, footwear, and plastic industries.
Keywords: COVID-19, International trade
JEL classification: F15, F53
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