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Research Activities

Research Projects

FY 2006/2007 Research Topic: 2-02
Projections for the Asian Industrializing Region (PAIR X)

Outline

The Asian NIEs, ASEAN, and China attained high levels of economic growth in the latter half of the 1980s and the first half of the 1990s, while successfully achieving the industrialization of their economies. Although the level of industrialization differs from economy to economy, they can be referred to in aggregate as the "Asian industrializing region." The economies of the region were severely affected by the Asian currency crisis. However, they recovered quickly, with help from the global IT revolution. A recession in the IT industry and 9/11 in 2001 caused a decline of their economies.

We are aware of the increasing importance of studying the Asian industrializing region in a world-wide perspective. We initiated a project entitled "Projections for the Asian Industrializing Region" (PAIR) in FY 1991. Based on macro-econometric models, the PAIR project aims to analyze the economic structure of the economies in the “Asian industrializing region” and to provide economic forecasts for them.

We have invited experts to join the project from overseas research institutions in each country and area in the Asian industrializing region as well as from developed economies.

At the beginning of the 21st century, various free trade agreements (FTAs) have been proposed in East Asia. We believe that an econometrical analysis of these FTAs will be an important contribution to understanding the Asian economies as well as making our economic forecasts for them more accurate. We decided to set up a sub-project in PAIR to construct a new econometric trade link model to evaluate various FTAs in the region. This new sub-project was initiated in FY 2004 and will be completed in FY 2006.

Period

April 2006 - March 2007

Organizer

Members of the Research Project

UEMURA Jinichi
YAMAJI Chinami
FUKUMOTO Mayumi
INADA Yoshihisa (Professor, Faculty of Economics, Konan University)
BAN Kanemi (Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)
ISHIKAWA Koichi (Professor, Institute for Asian Studies, Asia University)

Publications

The results of the study will be published in;
Jinichi Uemura, ed., 2007 Economic Forecasts for Asian Industrializing Region, PAIR Economic Forecasting Report No.16, March 2007, and J. Uemura, ed., FTAs in East Asia: Trade Link Model (III), March 2007.