Geographical Simulation Analysis of the Development of Thilawa and Myanmar

Discussion Papers

No.639

by Ikumo ISONO and Satoru KUMAGAI

March 2017

ABSTRACT

We use a geographical simulation model to assess the economic impacts of special economic zones (SEZs) and other policy measures in Myanmar. We compare cases wherein SEZ development is concentrated in Thilawa/Yangon with those wherein it is dispersed among 15 districts. We find that concentrated development has a much larger economic impact on Myanmar. Moreover, this impact is larger when we assume the development of a domestic economic corridor and regulatory reform in addition to the development of Thilawa and may reduce the excessive inflow of households into the Yangon area. We also discuss how delaying the dispersion of development affects the economic impacts on Yangon and other regions as well as on Myanmar.

Keywords: Simulation, new economic geography, Myanmar, special economic zone
JEL classification: O53, R12, R13

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