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Central Bank Intervention and Exchange Rate Behaviour: Empirical Evidence for India

Discussion Papers

No.353

by INOUE Takeshi
June 2012

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the causal relationship between central bank intervention and exchange returns in India. Using monthly data from December 1997 to December 2011, the empirical results derived from the CCF approach of Cheung and Ng (1996) suggest that there is causality-in-variance from exchange rate returns to central bank intervention, but not vice versa. These findings are robust in the sense that they hold in cases where the returns were measured from either the spot rate or the forward rate. Therefore, the results of this paper suggest that the Indian central bank has intervened in the foreign exchange market to respond to exchange rate volatility, although the volatility has not been influenced by central bank intervention in the form of net purchases of foreign currency in the market.


Keywords: Causality-in-variance, central bank, exchange rate, India, intervention
JEL classification: F31, E58

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