Effectiveness of the Monetary Policy Framework in Present-day India: Have Financial Variables Functioned as Useful Policy Indicators?
by INOUE Takeshi
In April 1998, the RBI, the Indian central bank, formally announced a shift in its policy framework from monetary targeting to a multiple indicator approach, and since then, under this framework, the bank has considered a range of economic and financial variables as policy indicators for drawing policy perspectives. This paper aims to examine the effectiveness of this current policy framework in India by analyzing the causal relationships of each indicator variable on the objective variables. The results reveal that, except for bank credit, all indicator variables considered in this study have a causal relationship with at least either output or price level, suggesting that most preannounced economic and financial variables have served as useful policy indicators under the multiple indicator approach.
Keywords: Causality; India; LA-VAR; Policy Indicator; RBI
JEL classification: E52
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