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Towards Sustained Growth

ASEDP

No.31

Edited by Raul V. Fabella, Hideyoshi Sakai
Published in 1995

CONTENTS

Preface
CHAPTER 1.
Structural Shifts in Key Macro Parameters: Implications on the Sustainability of Growth / Jpseph Y.Lim
1. Introduction
2. The Decline in Investment Shares
3. Insufficient Infrastructures and Capacity
4. Decline in Domestic Savings Share
5. Shifts in Industry and Relative Prices
6. The External Transactions
 6-1. The Trade Components
 6-2. Other Current Account Items
 6-3. External Capital Account
7. The Fiscal Sector
8. Summary and Conclusion

References

CHAPTER 2.
Fiscal Policy for Sustainable Growth / Benjamin E. Diokno
1. Introduction
2. Research Questions
3. State of Fiscal Affairs
 3-1. Pattern of Revenues
 3-2. Pattern of Expenditures
 3-3. Debt Service Remains Large
 3-4. Infrastructure Needs Remain Unaddressed
 3-5. Budgetary Priorities Changed
4. Fiscal Outlook
 4-1. Low Tax Effort
 4-2. Debt Ratio Remains High
 4-3. Rising Spending for Infrastructure to Address
   Backlogs and needs for a Fast Growing Economy
 4-4. Reemergence of Large Budgetary support to Government Corporations
 4-5. Mounting Pressure for New Programs and Expansion of Existing Programs
5. Policy Prescriptions

References


CHAPTER 3.
Debt management in the Philippines, 1980 to 1993 / Cayetano Paderanga, Jr.
1. Chronology of Philippine Debt Management
2. Philippine Debt Revisited
3. Sustainability of the Public Debt
4. Policy Implication of Public Debt Management
  4-1. how Sustainability was Addressed
  4-2. Policy Issues
5. Conclusion
6. Sources of Basic Data

References
Appendix Notes on the Decomposition of r
Figures
Tables


CHAPTER 4.
1. Introduction
2. Industrial Repression in the Philippines
3. The Underlying Mechanism causing the Repression
4. Inflation in the Philippines: 1987-1992
 4-1. Wage Rate
 4-2. Imported Goods Price
5. Interest Rates, Money Market and Financial Intermediaries in the Philippines
 5-1. The Money Market and its Interest Rates
 5-2. Financial Intermediaries and their Interest Rates
 5-3. TB Rate and the Euro-dollar Rate
6. Money supply and Inflation
 6-1. Reserve Money
7. Summary and Conclusions

References


CHAPTER 5.
On Recent Financial Flows: Causes and Consequences / Emmanuel S. de Dios
1. Closer Capital-Market Integration
2. A Simple Framework
3. Lower Interest Rates Cum Appreciation: A Perverse Relationship?
4. Real Exchange Rate Changes
5. Differential Sectoral Impact
6. Why There is No Quick Fix
7. Recent Policies - Compensation As Solution?
8. The Limits of Monetary and Fiscal policies

References
Appendices


CHAPTER 6.
Agriculture in Transition: Arresting Poverty in the Rural Sector / Arsenio M. Balisacan
1. Introduction
2. What Is Happening to Rural poverty?
3. Agriculture performance
4. Policy Reforms and Policy Reversals
5. An Opening of the Re-making of Agricultural Policy
6. Conclusions and Implications

Endnotes
References


CHAPTER 7.
Employment, Competitiveness and Growth:1980-1994 / Emmanuel F. Esguerra
1. Introduction
2. Data, Sources and Related Work
3. The Employment Situation
 3-1. Aggregates
 3-2. Sectoral Distribution
 3-3. Class of Worker and Occupational Distribution
 3-4. Unemployment and Underemployment
4. Employment Generation and the Macroeconomic Environment
 4-1. Employment Creating Policies
 4-2. Macroeconomics Performance and Employment
5. Sustaining Employment by Increasing Competitiveness
6. Summary

References


Chapter 8.
Sustainability of the 1994 Economic Recovery: Portents From the Past / Raul V. Fabella
1. The Eclipse of the Filipino People
2. NIChood as Redemption
3. A Second Faux Paus
4. The Brownouts and the Flagship Projects
5. The Enabling Macroeconomic Environment
6. The Ramos Recovery: Past Forward?
 6-1. 1986-1989: The Aquino Recovery
 6-2. 1976-1980: Marcos Ascendant
 6-3. 1966-1970: Marcos and Rural Infrastructure
 6-4. Euphoria and the 1949 Crisis
 6-5. The Cheap Dollar and Major Substitution of the 1950s
7. Epilogue

References