Seminars & Events

APL (Ajiken Power Lunch) is a lunchtime workshop open to public, including IDE staffs, visiting research fellows, IDEAS students, outside researchers and graduate students. This workshop provides a platform for presentation of any work in progress where we can discuss in either English or Japanese.

Please have a contact with APL organizers by email in advance (contact information is shown in the bottom of this page), if you would like to present your work or attend a seminar.

July 17, 2012, (Tuesday)12:30-14:00

Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization C22 Meeting Room　

The Causes and Consequences of Civil war in Cote d'Ivoire


Abstract:　After two decades of successful economic development since its independence in 1960, Ivory Coast has been mired in crisis in its last twenty years. The current difficulties have lasted much longer than expected and the consequences for welfare of the population have been tragic. Between 1985 and 2008, the fraction of the population below the poverty line increased from around 10 percent to 45 percent. A combination of economic shocks and lack of competitiveness, from early eighties to mid-nineties were primarily responsible for the observed secular decline. The pain brought by the structural problems was compounded in recent years by a series of political and social crises. The first sign of trouble began with the failure to manage the political transition after the death of President Houphouet Boigny. This led to an attempted coup in 1999. An armed rebellion in 2002 split the nation in two which left thousands of people dead. Since then, peace deals have alternated with renewed violence as the country has slowly edged its way towards a political resolution of the conflict lea.

Why do civil wars occur at all when, given the high costs of war, groups have every incentive to reach a peaceful agreement? As studies show, the outbreak of civil war is commonly attributed by poverty, income inequality and ethnic fractionalization. Moreover existing theories focus on information asymmetries, the inability to sign binding contracts in the absence of the rule of law and the actual behavior of armed organizations and their leaders. On the empirical side, a vast cross-country econometric literature has aimed to identify the causes and consequences of civil war. But many researchers find these studies potentially flawed because the intensity of such factors varies geographically within a country.

In this study, we undertake a disaggregated analysis of the civil war at sub-national levels in Cote d’Ivoire for the period from 1998 to 2006 using: (1) nationally representative household survey data, and (2) the ACLED conflict database. We use both the department and the sub-prefecture levels as units of analysis, and find robust evidence that ethnic diversity is significantly associated with conflicts. We also find strong empirical evidence that the share of Ivoirite population and the share of Muslim population is a significant determinant of civil war at the sub-prefecture level. Furthermore, more populous areas are at high risk of civil war, but the outcome is statistically significant only at the department level.

We also estimate the causal effects of civil war on years of education in the context of a school-going age cohort who are exposed to armed conflict in Cote d’Ivoire. Using year and department of birth to identify an individual’s exposure to war, the difference-in-difference outcomes indicate that the average years of education for a school-going age cohort is .94 years fewer compared to an older cohort in war-affected regions. After controlling for a number of specification tests, we conclude this outcome as robust.

Saumik Paul (Assistant Professor, School of Human Sciences, Osaka University)

Shinichi TAKEUCHI（Area Studies Center）
English

Contact: Institute of Developing Economies, APL Organizers Kenmei Tsubota　E-mail：kenmei_tsubota Yoshihiro Hashiguchi　E-mail:yoshihiro_hashiguchi (do not copy and paste address, formatted differently to prevent spam)